Short-term raw material shortages continue to constrain domestic smelting capacity, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract maintaining a pattern of being in the doldrums [SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract for May 22, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued its weak and volatile trend, closing at 264,780 yuan/mt, down 0.87%. The intraday trading range was 264,570-267,610 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 5,367 lots to 23,836 lots, with a turnover of 13.628 billion yuan and a net capital outflow of 204 million yuan.

Ore supply tightness persists: Domestic tin ore imports from January to April plummeted 47.98% YoY. Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region have been slow, with new license approvals and infrastructure reconstruction still pending. Incremental supply is expected to be released only in H2. Although the Bisie mine in the DRC has resumed production in phases, the first batch of tin concentrates exported in May will not enter the smelting process until June-July. The short-term raw material shortage continues to constrain domestic smelting capacity.

Spot market: High prices have curbed restocking willingness. Downstream solder, electronics, and home appliance enterprises, constrained by high prices, are only making just-in-time procurement. Traders reported that most transactions were concentrated in the low price range of 265,000-266,000 yuan/mt, with strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

Trading recommendations: If macro sentiment improves and supply disruptions occur, consider taking a long position with a light position size, targeting 270,000 yuan. Closely monitor tin ore import data from Myanmar and the restocking pace of downstream enterprises.